Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two.
A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details.