The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low.
West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the centralU.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper troughoriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple ofembedded shortwave impulses will migrate through thewest/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains tothe Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low developmentover the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MSValley into the southern High Plains, will result in modestsoutherly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s Fdewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TXinto western portions of the central Plains and northeast into theeastern Dakotas and MN.
Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell windprofiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes andelongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain.With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity,forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnantconvection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limitthunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmassrecovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, verticalshear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as ashortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies.However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could developanywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point.However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possibleinfluences from prior convection preclude probabilities at thistime.