Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma.
A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma.