Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.