Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States.
A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat.
A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight.
Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/orweaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pocketsof moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could supportlocalized damaging winds for a few more hours.